MLB: Handicapping the 2010 AL Cy Young Race
We have already taken a look at the races for the National League and American League MVP Award as well as the National League Cy Young Award. So, now it is time to handicap the favorites for the American League Cy Young race as we head down the home stretch. The field seems to be rather wide open right now with no real clear cut favorites.
Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers – Cliff Lee seems to be the guy ESPN is pushing to win it right now and he arguably has been the best pitcher in the league this year. One wonders if the no decisions he is racking up in Texas and the fact he missed the first few weeks of the season is going to cost him some votes when it comes time to select a winner. However, the fact still remains that Lee is averaging over 8 innings per start, has walked just 9 batters in 20 starts, and has an absurd 15.2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – Of the three pitchers tied for the lead league in wins Price has the better ERA by quite a margin. Opponents are hitting just .226 against him and he is averaging 8.22 strikeouts per nine innings. The biggest thing working against him is his inexperience. Price is about 17 innings short of his career high and with the Rays being in the playoff mix they are likely going to start pushing some of his starts back to keep him fresh for the stretch run in September.
Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – Lester is the only pitcher who ranks in the top six in the league in wins (5th), innings (6th), strikeouts (3rd), ERA (5th), and WHIP (6th). Will the Sox stay healthy enough to score enough runs for him to get to the 18 to 20 wins he is probably going to need to win the Award?
C. C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – Sabathia ranks second in the league in innings and 9th in the league in ERA. He has the benefit of being the number one starter on the highest profile team in the league which will help win him some votes. The one thing working against him right now is he has not been particularly sharp the last few weeks. In his six starts since the break he is only 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA and opponents are hitting .304 against him.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels – Weaver leads the league in strikeouts, is fourth in innings, and 7th in ERA, however, he is only 11th in wins an on pace to win around 15 or 16 games which, in the end, is probably not going to be enough to garner enough votes.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox – Buchholz leads the league in ERA and his 13 wins are good for 5th in the league. The biggest things working against him right now are he ranks only 39th in the league in strikeouts and is not even in the top 40 in the league in innings pitched.
Trervor Cahill, Oakland A’s – Cahill is second in the league in ERA and WHIP, eighth in wins, and opponents are hitting just .195 against him. The biggest thing going against him right now are his low strikeout numbers and the fact that nobody really knows who he is. If he played for one of the bigger market teams like Boston or New York we would probably be talking about him being a front runner right now.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – If Hernandez pitched on any other team where he was getting any kind of support behind him he would probably be the front runner right now. Too many times this year he has lost due to no run support or the bullpen being unable to hold a lead for him. He leads the league in innings, is second in strikeouts, and fourth in ERA, however, a record in the neighborhood of 12-14 is simply not going to be good enough to get any more than some token sympathy votes from the writers.
Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins – Pavano has the wins, a solid ERA, and is pitching for a team in playoff contention. However, his ERA does rank him in the top 10 in the league and his strikeout numbers are pretty low. Pavano is basically pitching well enough to have a 15-7 record but really is not dominating opponents enough to get a significant number of votes.
Phil Hughes, New York Yankees – Hughes has the second most wins in the league with 14, the only problem is that since the end of May his ERA is 4.84. The Yankees are also going to start skipping some of his turns in the rotation to keep him fresh for October.
