Fantasy Football: Pickle’s Picks at Running Back for 2010
After quarterback running back is probably the next biggest position to fill on your fantasy team. Getting a back who can give you 100 yards a game and double digits in touchdowns is essential to winning most fantasy leagues. The pickle is here to fill you in on which backs to target and which ones to stay away from in your fantasy draft.
Fantasy Studs
These are backs one can count on for 1,500 yards of offense and 10 touchdowns.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans – After racking up over 2,500 yards of total offense and finding the end zone 16 times it can be argued that Johnson is the most lethal weapon in football right now. His receiving skills bring an added bonus for leagues that score for receptions as he has been good for at least 40 catches in each of his two seasons. The only reservation I have with Johnson is he had over 400 touches last season and, historically speaking, backs that see the ball 400 times usually see a dip in production the following season. The one thing he does have going for him is he is a bit younger than other backs who have toted the rock that many times in a season.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – Jones-Drew showed to the world that he could handle being the primary back in Jacksonville racking up over 1,700 yards of offense and hitting pay dirt 16 times. He is another back who can be counted on for 50 catches a year. The only reservation with him is he saw his workload increased by 100 touches last season so he could see a drop off in production this season.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – Some might see Peterson’s 1,383 rushing yards as a bit of a disappointment last season. He was the one who was supposed to be rushing for 2,000 yards last season, but he seemed to struggle with consistency at times last season. Peterson did, however, lead the league with 18 touchdowns and as an added bonus to fantasy owners he posted career highs in catches (43) and receiving yards (436). The one thing that plagues Peterson is his tendency to cough the ball up. He fumbles more than an elite back should.
Fantasy Broncos
These are backs capable of putting up stud numbers but have other questions that may cause them not to be good fantasy players.
Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs – Any other year and Jones would be a fantasy stud at running back. He has posted at least 1,400 yards of offense and has scored 29 touchdowns over the last two years. However, he is going to have to share carries with Jamaal Charles and it seems unlikely that he will carry the ball more than 250 times this season which means his numbers are going to dip some.
Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – From a yardage standpoint Jackson is a stud fantasy player. His owners can generally count on him for 100 yards of offense each week he is in the lineup. He loses value because of how awful the team is around him. Despite being the second leading rusher in the league last year Jackson only managed to score four touchdowns and finding the end zone is more valuable to fantasy owners than piling up thousands of yards is. He also brings added value as a receiver as he can generally be counted on for 40+ catches a season. He also loses some points for health concerns.
Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – Grant can be maddeningly inconsistent at times. For example he sandwiched a 137 yard game in between 41 and 37 yard efforts last season. He is generally good for 1,200 rushing yards per season though, and he did manage to score 11 times last season. He does not bring a lot to the table in the passing game though.
Fantasy Colts
These are backs coming off break out seasons who are another year or two from being a fantasy stud.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice was one of the huge surprises last season. Nobody ever thought he would be capable of putting up 2,000 yards from scrimmage in one season. He found the end zone 8 times and as an added bonus caught 78 passes out of the backfield. With the Ravens adding more firepower at receiver his receiving numbers could dip this season, but there is no reason to think he will not put up another 1,300 yard rushing season.
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Mendenhall posted the first 1,000 yards season of his career going for 1,108 and scored 8 touchdowns in a breakout season. The Steelers will look to feature him more in the upcoming season as Roethlisberger is out for up to six weeks due to suspension. Mike Tomlin also expressed a desire of getting back to being more of a power running team meaning Mendenhall should see more carries this season.
Johnathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers – The upside to Stewart is he has a knack for finding the end zone scoring at least 10 times in each of his first two seasons. The downside is he has to share carries with DeAngelo Williams and he only caught 18 passes last season. At any rate he should be good for 800 to 1,000 yards and 10 TDs and makes for a good #2 or #3 back on a fantasy team.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs – Charles is coming off a break out year in 2009 in which he ran for 968 yards and 7 touchdowns over the second half of the season. On the year Charles put up 1,417 yards of offense and scored 8 times. The major downside to Charles is the addition of Thomas Jones to the roster. Instead of entering the season as the primary back in KC he will be sharing carries with Jones. The one plus with Charles is he has proven he can run for 1,000 yards with fewer than 200 carries. The one thing that remains to be seen is whether he can be a productive player when he is not getting the ball 20 to 25 times a game like he was the second half of last season.
Keep an Eye On
These are young backs who could be poised for break out seasons in 2010
Shonn Greene, New York Jets – Greene’s stunning performance in the playoffs where he ran for 263 yards on 44 carries against the Bengals and Chargers made the decision to release Thomas Jones that much easier. Greene is expected to be the primary ball carrier for the Jets this season and should have trouble posting 1,000 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns running behind one of the best lines in the league this season.
Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys – The expectation is that if Jones can actually stay healthy that he will end up being the featured back in Dallas this year. He has blazing speed and could potentially put up huge fantasy numbers if he gets enough touches. The main thing holding him back is his tendency to miss weeks at a time due to injury. If he becomes the featured back he could easily go for 1,200 rushing yards and 10 TDs.
Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – Moreno had a solid rookie season only to see his production fade a bit towards the end as he hit the proverbial “rookie wall” during the last month. He showed flashes of what he could do and still managed to put up 1,160 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns. There has been some talk this spring about Josh McDaniels planning on featuring him more in the coming season.
Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals – The Cards think Wells has the chops to be one of the league’s best backs and would like to make him a more integral part of the offense. He had a solid rookie season running for 793 yards and 7 TDs and with Kurt Warner retiring the Cards are likely going to run the ball a bit more this year. The two things holding Wells back are his tendency to put the ball on the ground and the production of Tim Hightower.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – With the release of long time starter Brian Westbrook, McCoy is expected to begin the season as the Eagles starter. McCoy was solid during his rookie season and showed flashes of what he could do at times. He is a versatile back who catches the ball well out of the backfield and stands a good chance at rushing for 1,000 yards this season provided he gets enough carries.
Leon Washington, Seattle Seahawks – After toiling in the shadow of Thomas Jones in New York the past several seasons Washington may finally get his shot at winning a starting job with Seattle this summer. He will be competing with Julius Jones and Justin Forsett for playing time, but Pete Carroll has an affinity for versatile backs like Washington and he very well could end up winning the job in Seattle. Keep an eye on this over the summer and if Washington beats out Jones and Forsett he could be worth taking a flyer on in a later round.
Buyer Beware
These are veteran backs who come with some baggage fantasy owners need to be aware of.
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – Last year at this time Williams was the one back everyone was clamoring to get on the heels of his 20 TD effort in ’08. While Williams is still a quality back one has to wonder how many carries he will see as Johnathan Stewart continues to get better. He should still be good for at least 1,000 yards and 8 to 10 TDs as the Panthers will still feature the run.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – Turner’s productivity took a big tumble last season as he struggled with nagging injuries most of the year. Just as we has starting to get his mojo back he lost most of the second half of the season due to a high ankle sprain. However, he did still manage 10 TDs in 11 games before going down for the count. One would expect that the Falcons will do a better job of limiting his carries, especially since Jason Snelling proved effective in Turner’s absence, and it seems unlikely he will ever approach the 376 carries he saw in ’08. As long as he stays healthy he is still a good bet for double digits in touchdowns and 1,300 to 1,500 yards. He gives fantasy owners nothing by way of the passing game.
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals – Yes Benson is coming off a career year in Cincy where he posted the first 1,000 yard season of his career. However runners like Benson tend to wear down quickly and he has never played a full 16 games in any one season. There is also a potential suspension looming over a May arrest. He has also never scored more than 6 TDs in any one season.
Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins -Ricky is coming off a strong year which saw him post almost 1,400 yards of offense and score 13 touchdowns. The problem with Williams is he could flake out at any moment and decide he does not want to play ball any more. For the time being he seems content on playing a couple of more years simply because he needs more money to be able to live the lifestyle he ultimately wants to live after his playing days are over. There is also the matter that he will share carries with Ronnie Brown. One of the reasons he was able to go for over 1,000 yards last season was due to Brown getting hurt and missing several games last season.
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore is one of the better all purpose backs in the game. The two biggest issues with him are he tends to miss a couple of games a year due to injury and inconsistency. He tends to be very much a boom or bust player where he gives you over 100 yards or is struggling to get past 40 or 50. He is not one of those guys where owners can expect 70 to 80 yards from him each and every week. He is coming off one of his best fantasy years in which he put up 1,526 yards of offense and scored a career high 13 touchdowns. One major bonus with Gore is he is typically good for 50-plus catches out of the backfield.
Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – The biggest thing holding Brown back are his injuries and having to share carries with Ricky Williams. If he stays healthy, though, one can count on 800 to 1,000 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns.
Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai never developed into the guy the Colts thought he would after rushing for 2,153 yards and scoring 23 touchdowns his first two years in the league. The Colts were expecting him to be a top ten rusher by this point in his career and it has never quite come together for him. The one big thing that makes him an asset to fantasy owners is he has always been a pretty consistent touchdown guy when he has been healthy. He averages 11.8 touchdowns per 16 games for his career. He has generally been good for 40-plus catches and a couple of touchdowns out of the backfield over his career.
Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – Thomas is probably never going to see more than 175 to 200 carries in a given season given how much the Saints like to throw the ball and the fact that he will share carries with at least one other back. What makes him a solid addition to a fantasy team as a secondary back is he has scored 20 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – On the heels of an unexpectedly strong rookie season Forte was the hot young fantasy back last summer. Now, not so much. Forte struggled to find his groove the entire year and saw his rushing yards dip from 1,238 to 929 in his second year. He also saw his scoring output drop from 12 to 4. The Bears brought in Chester Taylor this off season to pair with Forte in the backfield meaning Forte is more likely to see the 258 carries he had last season as opposed to the 316 he had his rookie year.
LaDanian Tomlinson, New York Jets – LT is on the downside of his career and it seems highly unlikely he will see more than 150 to 175 carries this season. The Jets are likely looking to him as a complimentary back to Shonn Greene. He does, however, still have a knack for hitting pay dirt and managed to score 12 touchdowns last season.
Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – Jacobs is probably never going to be a feature back who gets 300 carries a season, however when he is playing at his best he can give fantasy owners 1,000 yards and double digit touchdown numbers. His productivity can be inconsistent at times and he gives fantasy owners very little in the passing game.
Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys – Barber has never lived up to the hype that was bestowed upon him when he scored 28 touchdowns over the 2006-07 seasons. Since then he has signed a huge contract extension, failed to breach the 10 TD mark in either of the last two seasons, and he has never reached the 1,000 yard barrier in rushing yards. The problem with Barber is his running style lends itself to a lot of nagging injuries and Barber tends to wear down late in the season. The primary reason to be wary of Barber this year is the Cowboys are leaning towards making Felix Jones the featured back this summer.
Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – As long as Jacobs is around Bradshaw is always going to have to split carries with him. Bradshaw did a nice job last season running for 778 yards and scoring 7 TDs though. He is a nice guy to have around as a secondary back.
Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Smith is coming off an ACL injury that cost him the last three games of the season. Since coming into the league Smith has never struck me as a guy who was going to challenge for a rushing title and is something of a grinder. Regardless of his health he is going to lose touches to rookie Jahvid Best anyway. He will still probably be featured at the goal line though meaning he could still score seven or eight touchdowns this year.
Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots – Maroney tends to play well when the spirit move him to do so, and because of this he spends a lot of time in Bill Belichick’s doghouse throughout the season. He still remains the Patriots best option in the backfield and for what it is worth coming off a career best 9 touchdowns last season.
Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Injuries have pretty much sapped what was once a promising career. When healthy he is generally good for around 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns but one should anticipate him ever putting up Pro Bowl caliber numbers.
Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills – While Jackson is coming off a career year and his success has made Marshawn Lynch expendable one should not plan on Jackson having a repeat performance this season. Barring injury C. J. Spiller is expected to be the featured back in Buffalo this season meaning Jackson is likely going back to being a complimentary back who gets 8 to 10 touches a game.
Clinton Portis/Larry Johnson/Willie Parker, Washington Redskins – I don’t think I would waste my time on either of these guys. Yes Mike Shanahan does have a knack for getting production out of his running backs, but I am just not convinced either of these three has enough left in the tank to give more than six or seven hundred yards and a handful of touchdowns.
Jury is Out
These are players who the jury is still out on.
Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns – Harrison was tremendous over the last three games for the Browns rushing for 561 yards and five touchdowns, but it remains to be seen Mangini intends on featuring him in the offense this season or not. One would think he earned it with his performance to close out the year. His carries could be limited by rookie Montario Hardesty though.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – I want to see where Lynch ends up before deciding what to do with him. If the Bills hang onto him then there are not many compelling reasons to pick him up. If he ends up getting dealt to a team that is willing to feature him then he is worth a look as a secondary back.
Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Slaton’s fortunes are going to depend a lot upon when he is cleared to resume practicing. There is some thought that he may not be cleared for contact until the end of August. His role with the team is somewhat tenuous given how poorly he played prior to getting hurt last season. He still has the play-making ability to warrant the Texans giving him another go before pulling the plug on him though.
Assessing the Rookies
A brief look on how this year’s rookie backs might fare.
C. J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills – Barring injury Spiller is expected to be the featured back in Chan Gailey’s offense this season. Spiller has elite game breaking speed and was considered by many to be the best all around offensive player in this year’s draft class. If he gets enough carries he should go for 1,500 yards from scrimmage and score at least 8 to 10 touchdowns.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers – Mathews is considered to be the best between-the-tackles back in this year’s class and is expected to step right in for LaDanian Tomlinson. He should see at least 250 to 300 carries this season making 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns a strong possibility.
Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions – Best’s speed and play-making ability is comparable to that of Spiller’s, his stock slipped a bit after missing several games due to complications resulting from a concussion. The Lions will likely limit his exposure a bit until he proves he is over the concussion issues. Kevin Smith will probably still see the majority of the carries with Best getting 10 to 15 touches per game.
Dexter McCluster, Kansas City Chiefs – McCluster is not likely going to see the ball very much as a running back given the presence of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. There is some talk of the Chiefs converting him into a slot receiver. One could possibly see him being used much the same way Percy Harvin was in Minnesota last season. The Chiefs will probably look to get him 5 to 7 touches in space to let him see what he can do with the ball in his hands.
Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings – Gerhart is expected to take over the role Chester Taylor held as Adrian Peterson’s backup last season. He should get roughly 100 carries or maybe more if the Vikings look to limit Peterson’s touches a bit more. He could score a decent number of touchdowns as a goal line back though.
Ben Tate, Houston Texans – Keep an eye on Tate this summer. The running back job in Houston is considered to be wide open and Tate is expected to have a shot at winning it.
Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns – There are those who think Hardesty has a reasonable shot at winning the starting job for the Browns this summer. My gut tells me that it is Harrison’s to lose for the time being and Hardesty will be the #2 guy to start the season.
Joe McKnight, New York Jets – Without an injury to Greene or Tomlinson it is tough to imagine McKnight getting more than 75 to 100 carries this season and that is being generous.
