Fantasy Football: Pickle’s Picks at Quarterback for 2010

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As training camps kick off it is time to start thinking about who to target for your fantasy football team.  PopPickle is back with which quarterbacks you should have at the top of your list, which ones to target as a late round backup, and which ones to stay away from altogether.

Fantasy Studs

These are the guys who, barring injury, one can pencil in for 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns this season.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees has arguably been the best fantasy quarterback since coming to New Orleans.  He has led the league in scoring strikes the past two years and has averaged 30 touchdowns and 4,574 yards in his four years in New Orleans.  Since coming to the Saints he has thrown for at least 26 touchdowns and 4,388 yards every year.  The only downside to Brees is he will throw his share of interceptions due to the sheer volume of pass attempts and he fumbled the ball 10 times last season, but those are things most fantasy owners are willing to live with given they know he will be in the top two or three in yards and touchdowns.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy owners can always count on Manning for 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.  Manning has never thrown for fewer than 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns.  Manning has averaged 30 touchdowns and 4,137 yards over the past five years for the Colts.  He will throw his share of picks and he saw that number go up to 16 last season but a lot of that can probably be attributed to playing with two relatively green receivers in ’09.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Rivers has established himself as one of the league’s elite passers averaging 31 touchdowns and 4,131 yards over the last two seasons in San Diego.  The one thing to be wary of with Rivers is the Chargers have still not signed Vincent Jackson who is a favorite target of Rivers.  The absence of Jackson could really hurt Rivers’ fantasy numbers as he is the only established wide receiver on the team.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Like Rivers, Rodgers has blown up over the last two seasons averaging 4,236 yards and 29 touchdowns per season for the Packers.  He even managed to cut his interceptions down to 7 from 13 last season.  The one big plus to Rodgers is fantasy owners can typically count on some rushing touchdowns from him as well as he has scored 9 rushing touchdowns in his two seasons as the starting quarterback in Green Bay.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots – Brady looked a little rusty at times in the early going but he still managed 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns.  There is no reason to believe he will not post comparable numbers in 2010.

Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – We will put Favre in this group, but, keep in mind he is 40 and he still has not decided whether he is coming back for 2010 or not.

Fantasy Broncos

These are players who are capable of putting up great fantasy years, but, have been known to backslide at times, or have some known issues that could cause them to slip a bit this year.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Romo generally puts up good fantasy numbers and they could get better with the addition of Dez Bryant.  However, there could be an issue of pass protection for Romo this season with the team looking breaking camp with an untested left tackle.  Romo has shown a tendency to make bad throws when pressured by opposing teams.  The Cowboys also teneded to move the ball better when they featured the running game.  Keep an eye on how well the Cowboys protect Romo in the preseason before deciding on him.  If he gets protection this season he will be a stud if not it could be a long year for his fantasy owners.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Prior to having his knee shredded in the playoffs in 2008 Palmer was a guy on the come for the Bengals.  He had three consecutive years of 3,800 yards and 26 touchdowns prior to the knee injury.  Palmer’s numbers dropped significantly in his first full season back from the injury last year.  The additions of Antonio Bryant and Jermaine Gresham could help Palmer get back to being one of the best passers in the league in 2010.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Take away the interceptions and Cutler had a pretty solid fantasy year with 27 touchdowns and 3,666 yards last season.  He has thrown 52 touchdowns over his last two seasons and has thrown for at least 3,497 yards the past three seasons.  The problem is the Bears did nothing to improve Cutler’s targets meaning he will likely be left to force a lot of throws and suffer threw another 20+ interception season.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – The first reason to avoid Roethlisberger at the top of your draft is the fact that he could miss the first six weeks of the season due to a league suspension.  Roethlisberger is coming off an outstanding fantasy year but the reality of it is the Steelers tend to fare better as a team when they run the ball effectively and Mike Tomlin has stated a preference to get back to that this season.  Roethlisberger is sure to have some rust when he initially returns from suspension and could be worth squirreling away on your roster as a late season guy.

Eli Manning, New York Giants – Manning is coming off the best fantasy year of his career posting lifetime bests of  4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns in ’09.  It remains to be seen if this was simply Manning having a career year or the start of his ascension to being a guy the Giants can count on to carry the offense or if he will go back to being the same old mediocre Eli.

Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins – When healthy McNabb could typically be counted on for 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns per season in Philly.  Another bonus is fantasy owners can typically count on two or more rushing touchdowns per season.  Learning the offense should not be an issue for McNabb as the Philly offense is similar to Shanahan’s, but what could hurt McNabb is the lack of receiving talent in D. C. and an offensive line that still has a lot of question marks heading into training camp.

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – Yes Orton is coming off the best year of his career and is still considered the starting quarterback heading into the summer.  However his level of play dropped a bit after the first two months of the season and the team will be without Brandon Marshall this summer.  One should be wary of Orton this year as there is a good chance his numbers will drop.

Fantasy Colts

These are young quarterbacks coming off of breakout seasons and are on track to becoming studs with one or two more good seasons.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Schaub was finally healthy enough to start all 16 games last season and had a breakout year in 2009.  He led the league with 4,770 yards, sixth most in league history, and 29 touchdowns last season.  When healthy Schaub is as good as there is in the league, the only problem is he has missed five games in 2007 and 2008.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Flacco has steadily progressed his first two seasons in the league and posted solid fantasy numbers of 3,613 yards and 21 touchdowns in only his second year.  With the additions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to the Ravens roster this off season Flacco could be poised for a 4,000 yard, 25 touchdown season in 2010.

Keep an Eye On

These are quarterbacks who have yet to prove themselves to be good fantasy picks but could be poised for a breakout year this season.

Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles – Kevin Kolb may have the most fantasy upside of any of the unestablished quarterbacks in the league.  He is the only quarterback to ever pass for 300 yards in his first two career starts.  He also threw for two touchdowns in each of his two starts.  The big question on him is whether is tendency to throw picks is an aberration or if he is going to be a guy who gets picked 20 times this season.  With all of the weapons he has around him on offense the potential is there for him to throw for over 4,000 yards and upwards of 30 touchdowns.

Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – Smith is showing signs of coming around and with Vernon Davis emerging as a legit play maker and Michael Crabtree in the fold this summer Smith could be poised for his first 3,500 yard, 20 touchdown season.

Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – Henne had his moments last season and like most first year starters he struggled greatly at times.  One reason to be optimistic about Henne’s fantasy fortunes is the addition of Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins roster.  His presence alone could push Henne’s numbers up to 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns this season.

Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers – Moore went 4-1 and threw for 8 touchdowns and threw for 990 yards as a starter last season.  With the presence of DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart it is hard to imagine Moore throwing for more than 3,000 to 3,500 yards but he should give fantasy owners 20 to 25 touchdowns and he only threw 2 interceptions in 138 attempts last year.

Jury is Out

These are guys who the jury is still out on as to what their fantasy numbers may be this season.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – It is hard to gauge Ryan’s fantasy stock right now.  There are some things to like but one thing making me leery of him is they did nothing to try and enhance the receiving corps this off season and after Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez there is not a ton to be excited about in Atlanta.  He would appear to have the talent to be an upper echelon passer it is simply a matter of whether he has the weapons around him to do so.

Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs – Cassel has shown he can be a good fantasy quarterback (3,693 yds/21 TDs in ’08) the problem is I just do not like the talent around him in KC and the team did little to try and improve his receivers this off season.  Pass protections looks to still be an issue as well.

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals – Leinart is considered the starter heading into camp and he has the talent around him to pass for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.  The only problem is he has yet to show he is going to put it all together at the pro level.  He has been very inconsistent in previous stints as the Cards starter.

Buyer Beware

These are quarterbacks not worth taking unless you are looking to take a late round flyer on the off chance he does something this season.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Hasselbeck still has something left in the tank but the Seahawks are still rebuilding and there is no guarantee he even beats out Charlie Whitehurst this summer.  If you have to take one guy out of this bunch he is probably the best choice simply because of what he has shown he can do in the past when he is healthy and has enough talent around him.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – While I still think Sanchez is going to be a good quarterback in due time and he should post better numbers than he did last season.  Two things to be wary of hear are he is coming off knee surgery and the Jets were the leading running team in the league last year.  There is no reason to think the Jets are going to shift gears and conscientiously start throwing the ball 30 to 35 times a game this season.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Until the Jags put serious effort into giving Garrard some real weapons to throw the ball to 3,500 yards and 15 to 18 touchdowns is about as good as it is going to get for Garrard.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – Young is in a similar situation as Garrard.  There simply are not a lot of weapons at Young’s disposal for owners to expect he will put up good fantasy numbers and he still turns the ball over his fair share.  The big plus is what Young can give you running the ball.

Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders – While Campbell is coming off the best fantasy season of his career he is going to Oakland which has been an offensive train wreck for several years running.  There is no reason to expect Campbell’s numbers to improve or even approach last year’s.  The only way Campbell has a respectable season is if Darrius Heyward-Bey suddenly learns how to catch a football.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Freeman was pretty inconsistent during his rookie season and turned the ball over quite a bit.  He had a few solid games but the bad outweighed the good for Freeman.  After Kellen Winslow, Reggie Brown is the best established receiver on the roster and after him it is mostly guys who never made it or unproven talent.  If Arrelious Benn or Mike Williams turn out to be ready for prime time Freeman’s fortunes could change.  Keep an eye on how the rookie receivers look this summer before making the ultimate decision on Freeman.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – Stafford was wildly inconsistent last season and he never seemed to settle in and find his groove.  He threw a lot of interceptions and pass protection could still be an issue this season.  A healthy Calvin Johnson and the addition of tight end Tony Scheffler should help Stafford progress some this season, but until he shows he can string together three or four consecutive games with 250 passing yards and not throw multiple interceptions then Stafford is probably not worth taking as a starter for your fantasy team.

Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns – Delhomme was downright brutal last season and even in his best years he just an average fantasy quarterback.  There is no reason to believe Delhomme is going to give fantasy owners anything now that he is in Cleveland.  After all the only reason he was a decent fantasy quarterback in Carolina was having guys like Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad to throw the ball to.

Assessing the Rookies

These are the top rookie quarterbacks taken in the 2010 draft.

Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams – The expectation is that Bradford will begin the year as the Rams’ starting quarterback, however, given the lack of talent at the receiver position in St. Louis would should not expect big things from him in year one.  I would tend to lean towards him putting up numbers closer to Matthew Stafford than Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco had as rookies.  Ryan and Flacco had at least one established receiver to throw the ball to and the Rams simply do not have that.  I do think he will fare better than Stafford or Freeman simply because he does have Steven Jackson who should help take some of the weight off his shoulders.

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos – Tebow is likely going to be the #3 guy behind Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn to start the season.  He is largely seen as a guy who is going to need two or three years to develop before being ready to start at the NFL level.  He could see action as a Wildcat quarterback this season though.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers – The starting job is Matt Moore’s to lose in Charlotte and unless Moore or the Panthers fall flat on their faces the first month of the season it seems unlikely Clausen sees much playing time initially.  He could get a couple of starts at the end of the year if the Panthers are out of the playoff hunt.

Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns – With Delhomme already in Cleveland McCoy will likely sit and watch to start the season.  The Browns are facing pretty low expectations so there is no real compelling reason to throw McCoy to the lions right away.  He could see action towards the end of the year once the Browns are out of the playoff picture.

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