NBA: Free Agency, News, and Notes

lebron

As the NBA free agency period kicks into high gear it is time to sort through some news and notes in regards to which unrestricted free agents are meeting with which teams and where some guys may end up as well as some other rumors going around the league.

LeBron James

The $64,000 question is where will LeBron end up signing this summer.  Every team with enough cap space to offer a max contract is expected to talk to LeBron and even some teams who don’t will talk with him about a potential sign-and-trade deal.

The two front runners to land LeBron are the Cavs and Bulls.  James is going to feel huge pull to stay put in Cleveland.  He is Ohio born and bred and one thing everyone says about LeBron is he is loyal almost to a fault.  The Cavs will remain in play because of that loyalty and simply because under the guidelines of the CBA they can offer him the most money.

The Bulls are right there in the mix simply because they are close enough to his home base in Ohio making it easier to get home on off days and because the Bulls are potentially one top line player away from being a championship contender.  They have a good core of young talent in Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Taj Gibson to support LeBron.  In addition to that once the Kirk Hinrich deal goes through the Bulls will have enough cap space left to potentially go after another big name free agent like a Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, or Amar’e Stoudamire.

The rest of the teams rumored to be chasing LeBron simply do not have enough pieces to make them intriguing enough.  Yes, the Knicks can afford to sign two max contract players, but they are devoid of any real secondary talent, and their best player from last season, David Lee, is an unrestricted free agent himself.  Are front line players really going to be that interested in coming to NY to play alongside Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari?  It seems fairly unlikely.

The Nets are mildly intriguing and they also have enough room to sign two max players, but, like the Knicks there is not a lot to be excited about on the current roster.  However, I will give them that Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, and Derrick Favors is a much more attractive core of talent than what the Knicks currently have.  Losing out on John Wall in the draft likely killed their chances to land him.  Like the Knicks the Nets are faced with the task of filling out half the roster with filler players.

The Clippers are the one intriguing dark horse in this race.  They have Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, and Eric Gordon and picked up Al-Farouq Aminu and Eric Bledsoe in the draft.  So, there is a nice talent base to work with there.  The thing is, it is the Clippers and does LeBron want to toil in the shadow of Kobe in Los Angeles?  Or, does LeBron relish the challenge of setting up shop in Kobe’s backyard and knocking him off the mountaintop?

Dwyane Wade

Wade would like to stay in Miami and is openly campaigning for guys to take an interest in signing there.  Chris Bosh is considered to be in the mix for the Heat as is Carlos Boozer, whom the team was rumored to be close to trading for last summer.

As long as the Heat can land someone like Bosh, Boozer, or Stoudamire then Wade will stay put in Miami, however if the Heat fails in attracting one of the big fish to move down to Miami then all bets are off and Wade will shop his wares elsewhere.

Chris Bosh

Chris Bosh is considered by many to be #3 on the list of available free agents behind LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  He is also being linked to Wade and James this summer.  One of the hottest rumors is all three will set up shop in Miami, but the math does not allow for a team to have three max contract players and one can rest assured that James is not going to settle for making less than Wade and Bosh is not going to take significantly less to simply play third fiddle to LeBron and Wade.

Bosh would love to play alongside Wade or LeBron but I think even he realizes the odds of playing with both is pretty remote.  Miami is considered a front runner to land Bosh and are probably the favorites to land him today, but that can change.  There is also a scenario out there where the Bulls will make a push to sign him in a package deal with LeBron.

Bosh is reportedly meeting with Toronto, Miami, Chicago, and Houston on day one.  Of those teams Miami and Chicago seem to have the inside track.  Regardless of what Bosh may say there is little to no chance of him staying in Toronto.  He will listen to what they have to say but he seems to tired of carrying a mediocre team on his back year-to-year.

Houston would be a nice fit for Bosh but he reportedly is not too keen on playing in Houston.

Do not rule Mark Cuban and the Mavericks out of the equation either.  While they do not have the cap space to pull off such a deal they do have the expiring contracts of Erick Dampier and Caron Butler, worth roughly $23 million, to offer up in a sign-and-trade deal.  Bosh is from Dallas and would probably be amenable to teaming with Nowitzki and playing with the Mavs.  It is probably not the best place for Bosh to be long term as a lot of the Mavs stars are on the wrong side of 30 and the team probably only has two or three more years left together.  However, the addition of Bosh would make them viable contenders in the West.

The Lakers are said to be offering up Andrew Bynum in a potential sign-and-trade deal, but the Raptors are not interested given he has missed 96 games over the past three seasons due to knee and foot injuries.  Bynum is an immense talent but folks are starting to wonder how long his career is going to last if he is having all of these issues with his knees now at the age of 22.

Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki opting out of his deal is largely seen as a move for him to get one last multi-year deal under the terms of the current CBA before it expires after next season.  Dirk wants to stay in Dallas and the Mavs seem more than willing to give him a multi-year deal to keep him happy.

The risk for the Mavs here is what happens if a team like the Knicks or Nets swoops in and offers him a max deal?  Cuban prefers to only give Dirk a three or four year deal and he seems amenable to that, but what happens if a team offers him a six year contract?  He would have to listen wouldn’t he?

Joe Johnson

A lot of teams are interested in Joe Johnson as a #2 guy this summer.  Teams are hoping that they can land Johnson in a package deal with one of the other big name players.  The Knicks are rumored to be atop his list of potential suitors, but will he jump ship if the Hawks pony up max money to keep him?

The Nets and Bulls, two teams in need of a wing scorer will be hot and heavy after Johnson as well.

Amar’e Stoudamire

The usual suspects will be lining up to talk with Stoudamire as well.  The Heat, Bulls, Rockets, Nets, and Knicks are all in the market for front court scoring this summer and will have an interest in Amar’e's services.

In the end one cannot help but wonder if Stoudamire ends up staying put in Phoenix when the Suns cave and give him a max offer.  The Suns have the cap space to go outside of the organization to land a secondary star in the $10 million range but they do not have enough room to land another front line guy if Amar’e jumps ship and the team is not thrilled about the idea of going into next season without a credible replacement for their leading scorer and rebounder.  The huge debate with Stoudamire is whether or not he is worthy of max contract type of money.

The Knicks are considered to have an inside track on him given his past relationship and success playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system.

Carlos Boozer

Carlos Boozer is another guy who is likely as good as gone.  It has just felt as though Boozer has been ready to move on for a year or so now.  The rumored contenders to land Boozer are the Heat and the Bulls.  Both teams were rumored to be hot and heavy after him last summer but were never able to work out a trade to pry him away from the Jazz.

Boozer is no longer a franchise type of player but he is still a good front court scoring option and one of the better rebounders in the game.

Paul Pierce

Pierce, like Nowitzki, is likely opting out to secure a longer term deal with his current team under the existing CBA.  It seems unlikely that Pierce leaves Boston and it is hard to imagine him playing elsewhere.  Would he listen to a team like the Nets or Knicks if they were to offer him a max contract?  Given his age and how close he is to winning a championship in Boston it seems unlikely.

Would he listen to the Bulls though?  They seem to have the pieces in place to challenge if they add the right players this summer.  Would the Bulls be willing to give Pierce a longer term deal than Boston will knowing they will have to pay Derrick Rose in the very near future?

David Lee

Lee is an interesting case.  He could still end up in a Knicks uniform next season, but if the Knicks land the two big free agents they think they will then he is as good as gone.  Where he ends up will largely depend on where Stoudamire, Bosh, and Boozer end up signing.  A lot will depend on who looses out on those three players.  The Bulls, Heat, Knicks, Nets, and Raptors are considered the leading destinations for Lee, but it is hard to truly gauge where he goes until the other pieces start falling into place.

Ray Allen

It is widely believed that Allen will stay in Boston at a modest rate of around $10 million per season.  It seems unlikely that he would go to a team that is re-building and will probably end up on a team looking for #3 guy who can shoot from the outside in hopes he can help get them into the Finals.

Richard Jefferson

It was somewhat surprising to hear Jefferson opted out given he was still owed $15 million in the last year of his deal and nobody is going to give him that kind of a salary for next season.  Jefferson is clearly making a trade off for long term security with the potential of a lockout looming after next season and the consensus seems to be that he will re-sign with the Spurs for more guaranteed money overall.

Some are also saying that Jefferson is looking for a fresh start after a rather disappointing season in San Antonio.

John Salmons

John Salmons opted out of his contract in Milwuakee.  With the Bucks recent acquisitions of Corey Maggette and Chris Douglas-Roberts one can almost take it to the bank that Salmons will not be back in Milwaukee.  With a lockout looming after next season this move likely has to do with getting a multi-year deal in hand than anything else.  Look for Salmons to go for a two or three year deal at a mid-level rate to a team in need of third or fourth scorer.

Eddy Curry

With just one year left on his deal Curry is finally a trade-able commodity and the Knicks will try and move him to create even more cap space to lure another free agent to town.  It seems to me the Knicks might be better of trading him for a couple of younger role players to flesh out there bench.  The primary reason nobody thinks the Knicks will make as big of a splash as everyone thinks they will is the lack of any kind of a roster heading into free agency.  They have just six players under contract which means there will be a lot of undrafted rookies and D-League players on that roster next year.

Vince Carter for Gilbert Arenas

There is growing speculation that the Wizards and Magic have discussed a deal involving Vince Carter for Gilbert Arenas.  Not sure if there is any real truth to this given Arenas’ history of knee problems and how much money he is still owed.  Most would agree that Arenas is long overdue for a change of scenery given what went down with him in D. C. this past year.

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