NBA: Where Does LeBron Go From Here?
With LeBron James’ impending free agency all the talk is about where the two-time reigning MVP is going to be suiting up next season. While everyone in the league would love to get their hands on James’ talents there are really only a handful of teams that can legitimately land this summer’s prized free agent. With that said let us take a look at the potential suitors for James this summer.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs were always going to be in the mix for LeBron’s services this summer. He is the “hometown hero” of sorts and I think he relishes that to a certain extent. The Cavs can also offer him $30 million more than any other team can. There will also be a sense of failure if he leaves Cleveland without a championship.
Pros: They have a pretty solid roster, not a great one, but most think they have enough to win a title. The money could be a factor as well. He has all of the plum marketing deals and going elsewhere is not going to get him more money from Nike. He has his roots in Ohio and it could be tough for him to leave that behind.
Cons: The Cavaliers have re-tooled their roster over the last couple of summers to no avail. The team is currently locked into Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao and Mo Williams for the next couple of years and look to have very little cap space to make any major additions to the roster. The most valuable expiring contract they currently own is that of Delonte West’s which is valued at slightly over $4.6 million.
Bottom Line: I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that his bags are packed and he has decided to leave. Some will depend on what Cleveland does to try and tweak the roster and whether Mike Brown is still the coach. They are the sentimental favorites right now, but is that going to be enough for him to stick around?
New York Knicks
The media has been hyping the Knicks as his destiny ever since he declined to sign a long term deal with the Cavs three summers ago. There are those who think LeBron wants to play on the biggest stage in the country which would be Madison Square Garden in New York. They think he wants to go to NY to better market himself globally.
The thing is I do not buy that argument. In the age of the Internet and cable packages that allow you to watch basically every NBA game during the season guys like LeBron James do not need to play in a major city to market themselves globally. Besides, the NBA makes sure its most marketable stars get the lion’s share of the national TV games on TNT, ESPN, and ABC. There is not inherent advantage to playing in cities like New York, Chicago, etc. any more.
LeBron also says he wants to win several championships when all is said and done. Does New York really represent the best opportunity for him to do so? Sure they have the cash to sign two big time free agents this summer, but what will they have after that? The team’s top two scorers, David Lee and Al Harrington, are free agents. Danilo Gallinari did have a breakout year and Toney Douglas showed some promise as a rookie and Wilson Chandler is a solid role player, but after that there is not a lot to be excited about in New York.
Aside from the talent issue is the head coach issue. Mike D’Antoni runs an exciting up-and-down the floor offense whose teams play little to no defense. D’Antoni had a modicum of success in Phoenix, but his teams never ever won anything in the playoffs because of a lack of attention to defense. Does anyone believe that D’Antoni is ever going to win a championship with the system he runs? Teams typically do not win in the playoffs without having some sort of defensive strategy.
Does LeBron want to play for a coach with such an uptempo style of an offense? One thing that could weigh in his decision may be how many years might I lose playing in a system where I am constantly running up and down the court. D’Antoni’s style of play is not terribly conducive to bigger players.
Pros: New York itself does have a certain allure to it and he is known to like to hang out in New York. The team can also afford to fit another max value contract under the salary cap this summer. They do have a couple of promising young players under contract in Gallinari and Douglas.
Cons: The Knicks are the Chicago Cubs of basketball. They are a major market team with a strong following but they also one of the worst run teams in the league. The Knicks have a poor track record of building teams and just pissing money away because they can afford to. Their coach is paper champion. His teams always seem to look good on paper but fall short in the playoffs and if he wants to be in that situation why not stay in Cleveland and make an additional $30 million in the process?
Bottom Line: I suspect the Knicks will be on the list of finalists and he will listen to what they have to say. I am just not sure there are enough compelling reasons for him to seriously consider signing with them at the end of the day.
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls seem to be emerging as the alternative favorite to the Cavs. They have a good core of young talent to build around LeBron. Derrick Rose is going to be a superstar within the next couple of years and LeBron has gone on record saying he is a big fan of Rose’s game and that he is the one young point guard that he would like to play alongside one day. Joakim Noah’s star is on the rise and the team loves young power forward Taj Gibson. Gibson and Noah potentially give them a pair of 10-and-10 guys in the next year or so.
The presence of James would make Luol Deng expendable and he would likely be moved. I am not sure what his trade value would be or what they could potentially get in return for him given his long term contract.
Chicago is also currently sans head coach which could work both for them and against them. It could work for them in the sense that LeBron could have some influence on who they ultimately settle on as head coach. It could work against them in the sense that LeBron does not want to commit to a team without knowing who he is going to be playing for. There has been some rumors to the effect that the Bulls are going to make a run at Phil Jackson this summer if they can lure a player like James or Dwyane Wade to come to Chicago.
The one thing rumored to have LeBron being hesitant about coming to Chicago is not wanting to be the next “Michael Jordan”. There is a sentiment out there that LeBron would prefer not to go to a team that has had a player like Jordan in recent years. He wants to establish his own legacy and not necessarily continue a previous legacy.
Pros: Of the teams that will be able to fit James under the salary cap this summer the Bulls probably have the best talent base to pair with LeBron. It is a major market team and is closer to his home base in Ohio than any of the other teams in the running would be. Could have some influence on who the next head coach is going to be.
Cons: No head coach in place so he does not necessarily know what he is walking into, and Jerry Reinsdorf has a reputation for being a very “my way or the highway” kind of owner. Are the Bulls not far enough removed from the Jordan Era for a player like James to come in and establish his own legacy with the Bulls?
Bottom Line: If LeBron decides he just needs to get out of Cleveland, Chicago makes the most sense in terms of the talent he will have to work with and the proximity to his home and family in Ohio.
New Jersey Nets
The Nets are going to have a little north of $30 million to work with under the salary cap this summer meaning they could go after LeBron and another decent player to go along with him. Not to mention they also have the most ping pong balls in this week’s lottery drawing for the draft. There is a very strong possibility the Nets will land an impact player in the draft like a John Wall, Evan Turner, or DeMarcus Cousins.
Aside from all of that the Nets also have a good base of young talent to build around LeBron. Center Brook Lopez is a budding star after just two years in the league and should develop into a 20/10 player once the Nets have some more talent around him. Lopez is a legit low post scorer for the Nets. When healthy and motivated to play Devin Harris is a legit 20 point-per-game scorer at the point guard position. So they will have Harris, Lopez, and whoever they get in the draft to with LeBron.
The Nets are also set to move to New York within the next couple of years and if LeBron decides he really wants to play for a NY team the Nets would make the most sense as long as he is willing to gut it out in New Jersey for a couple of years.
The team also has a new hotshot billionaire owner who is willing to spend whatever it takes to rebuild the Nets into a winning franchise.
New Jersey is also without a coach right now, which, as previously mentioned, could work for and against a team in this instance. The new owner is rumored to be interested in Coach K, who says he is not interested, but it remains to be seen if an offer ever comes or not.
Pros: Have a potential superstar in Lopez and a star player in Harris to go along with what will likely be one of the top two or three picks in the draft. New owner who, in all likelihood, is willing to spend to rejuvenate the franchise.
Cons: Not the most glamorous choice that could be made and may have to rough it in NJ for a couple of years until the team actually moves to NY. How long will it take for some of their current players to get the stench of last season out of their psyches?
Bottom Line: It could happen but, I mean, it is the Nets. I cannot remember the last time they were able to lure a marquee free agent to come play for them. They typically have had to either trade for or draft any of the stars they have had in recent years. Missing out on John Wall could hurt the Nets chances here.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have a lot of dead weight coming off the books this summer and some really good young talent that they are rebuilding with. Reigning Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans is a rising superstar while Carl Landry would make a good #3 scorer in the offense. Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson give them rebounding and some low post scoring. The Kings will also likely draw a top five pick in the this week’s draft lottery meaning they could land an impact player in the draft as well.
Pros: Good young talent base and the likelihood of an impact player in the draft. Sacramento is also a good basketball town with a strong fan base.
Cons: Not the biggest market in the league and James could have his eyes set on playing for a major market team.
Bottom Line: Sacramento is just not at the top of a lot of guys lists. The Kings have always struggled to attract the upper echelon free agent talent and much like the Nets they have typically had to trade for or draft their top talent.
Los Angeles Clippers
Don’t laugh but it could theoretically happen. The Clippers have the cap space to make it work and they have some attractive pieces to put with LeBron. With Marcus Camby out of the way Chris Kaman came into his own last season as a post player and Eric Gordon is a rising star at shooting guard. Granted, Baron Davis is getting on in years but he is still a productive veteran at the point. They will also have Blake Griffin back from injury next season.
There is also the allure of playing in LA and what better place to try and one up Kobe Bryant, but in his own backyard. How much would the NBA love to have Kobe and LeBron battling it out for supremacy in Los Angeles?
Pros: It is LA and Gordon and Griffin should be stars within the next couple of years.
Cons: This is the Clippers we are talking about after all. Their owner is notoriously stingy and there is a general stench of failure around the franchise.
Bottom Line: The only way I see this happening is if LeBron decides he has to play in a city like L. A.
Miami Heat
This could theoretically happen as well. It is no secret that LeBron is good friends with Dwyane Wade and the Heat could manage to sign James and then re-sign Wade under the salary cap rules. The question is would LeBron be potentially willing to make less than Wade theoretically could under the rules of the CBA? The other question is can a team featuring LeBron and Wade actually win when their next best players are Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook, and God knows who else as those are the only two under contract for next season.
Pros: It is Miami and playing alongside Wade would be an extremely tempting possibility.
Cons: Who fills out the rest of the roster?
Bottom Line: Miami has too many missing pieces to make this a real possibility. Teams like Orlando, Boston, and Los Angeles are still alive in the playoffs because they have the right blend of stars and quality depth to go along with it.
Dallas Mavericks
Owner Mark Cuban got fined for going on record for basically saying he would do whatever it took to try and land LeBron. Problem is, even with Dirk Nowtizki opting out of his contract the Mavs are still over the cap for next season meaning they would have to work out some sort of a sign-and-trade deal to get someone like LeBron this summer. The consensus seems to be that Dirk is opting out simply to land one last pay day from Dallas and he is really not interested in going anywhere else.
The big question is as it pertains to LeBron and Dallas is whether he is interested in going to a team that could conceivably make a run at a title with him in the lineup next season or if he is looking more long term than that?
A lot would also depend on which players they would have to part with in order to fit both LeBron and Dirk under the cap structure. They have two expiring contracts in Caron Butler and Erick Dampier that would potentially create over $23 million in cap space were they to do a sign-and-trade deal with the Cavs.
Pros: Assuming Dirk stays put they would have a good core of players with he, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry to challenge the Lakers for western supremacy. The team would be built to win right away.
Cons: It would be a pretty old team with Jason Kidd already turning 37 and Marion, Nowitzki, and Terry inching towards their mid-30s in the next couple of years.
Bottom Line: I do not think Cuban has all of the right pieces to try and pull this off. I am also not sure if LeBron wants to go to a team that may only have a two year window of winning championships before he is right back to where he is now in Cleveland.
