2009 NBA Free Agency Preview
July 1 marks the beginning of free agency in the NBA. This year’s market is not nearly as ballyhooed as next year’s looks to be but there are still some guys out there who can help other teams. The Pickle is here to preview this year’s free agent market.
Top Early Termination Option (ETO) or Player Option (PO) Free Agents
Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu has already informed the Magic that he will be opting out of his contract and entering the free agent market. Florida Today reports that Hedo turned down a four year $35 million extension just after the playoffs ended. It remains to be seen if he can do better than that as he is 30 years old but Manu Ginobilli made over $10 million this past year in San Antonio and one has to believe that Turkoglu is looking for a deal that averages somewhere in the neighborhood of $11 or $12 million per season as a starting point. Do not be surprised to see the Timberwolves or Blazers make a run at Hedo and give him the type of cash he is looking for. Both teams should have the money under the cap to afford him and have been rather underwhelming at the small forward position the past couple of seasons.
Anderson Varejao – It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Varejao is going to opt out. He begrudgingly re-signed with the Cavs after a prolonged contract dispute in 2007. There is a school of thought that says the Cavs are willing to let him walk and will look to replace him with Charlie Villanueva who would potentially give them more scoring from the power forward position.
Kobe Bryant – Bryant could potentially opt out of his deal and this looked like a real possibility two summers ago when he was making noise about wanting to be dealt but given that the Lakers just won the title and the state of the economy over the past year likely means a minimal bump, if any, in the salary cap Kobe has little to gain by opting out. Bryant has expressed an interest in staying in Los Angeles, he has never really wanted to play anywhere else, so one would expect the Lakers to lock him up to a long term extension after they have the roster set for next season.
Al Harrington – Is not likely to opt out of his deal. He reportedly loves playing in D’Antoni’s system and there probably is not much of a market for him anyway.
Eddy Curry – Since he is due roughly $31 million over the next three years and has managed to play in all of 62 games the past two seasons there is virtually no chance he opts out of his contract.
Top Restricted Free Agents (RFA)
David Lee – Surely the Knicks are not going to let this guy walk. Granted they are on record as saying they want to have as much cap room as possible next summer and Lee is likely going to command a deal averaging in the neighborhood of at least 8 to 10 million per season if not more. But, what stars are going to want to sign with a team whose top players are Wilson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Jared Jefferies, and, potentially, an aging Jason Kidd? Lee is the only guy on that team who rebounds and shoots the ball consistently. Although, one wonders if them drafting Jordan Hill means they are preparing for life without Lee moving forward.
Do not be surprised if the Rockets, Thunder, or Pistons make a play for Lee. The Rockets suddenly have a gaping hole in the middle with the news that Yao could be out next year and the Thunder have long been in need of a low post player who can score and rebound. Expect the Pistons to be in play on just about anyone who can give them quality minutes under the basket. The Jazz are potential suitors as well depending on what happens with Okur, Boozer, and Paul Milsap.
Paul Milsap – Don’t expect the Jazz to let him go without a fight. There is the chance that the Jazz would not be able to afford him if Boozer and/or Okur opt to stay put next year. If the Jazz had their druthers Milsap would be the starting power forward for them next season. The Pistons and Thunder are the obvious suitors for his services.
Marvin Williams – With plenty of cap space to play with one has to assume that the Hawks intend on matching any offer that comes his way as they did with Josh Smith last summer. Williams is a bit of an enigma as he was hyped as having all-league talent when he came into the league only he has yet to live up to it. It will be interesting to see what kind of market is out there for Williams. While he has done nothing to earn the type of deal Danny Granger got from Indiana last year I would not be surprised if a team offered him one. If there is one thing I have learned over the years it is that NBA executives love to hand out big contracts to players based on perceived talent and upside as opposed to what they have actually accomplished.
The Blazers and Timberwolves are teams with a need for a small forward in the best position to throw a ton of money his way and could be willing to overbid for him if they lose out on Turkoglu.
Raymond Felton – Felton can probably be had if a team is willing to give him a deal worth more than the mid-level cap exception. Charlotte coach Larry Brown seems to prefer D. J. Augustine and it seems unlikely that the Bobcats would get into a bidding war over Felton in the wake of Augustine’s strong rookie season.
If the Sixers lose Andre Miller to another team they could potentially make a run at Felton. They will need a veteran presence at the point while Jrue Holiday learns the ropes. The Trail Blazers always seem to be looking to upgrade the point guard position and Felton could fill the role of a point man who can score in double digits and dish the ball. If Jason Kidd jumps ship the Mavericks could try to swing a sign-and-trade by offering up Jerry Stackhouse’s expiring contract as trade bait.
Josh Childress – Given how contentious the negotiations were between him and the Hawks last summer and that they still hold his NBA rights one would expect him to remain in Europe for the time being.
Ramon Sessions – The Bucks gave him a qualifying offer and seeing as they did not give one to Charlie Villanueva it seems that Sessions is a top priority for the team. It remains to be seen what the market will be for Sessions but it seems apparent that the Bucks intend on matching any offer that comes his way.
Nate Robinson – With rumors swirling that the Knicks are going to make a play for Jason Kidd and with the team openly stating its interest in Ricky Rubio it seems more and more unlikely that the Knicks have any real interest in bringing Robinson back. A team like the Warriors who likes the run-and-gun type of system or a Sacramento Kings who needs a veteran point guard could make a run at Robinson as a stop gap solution until one of their younger players is ready to run the point.
Jarrett Jack – There is a good chance the Pacers could let Jack walk if they cannot find someone to take Jamaal Tinsley or T. J. Ford off their hands. The team already has almost $16 million tied up in those two for the next two years and is likely not looking to invest another six or seven million in a third point guard. The Sixers as well as the Hawks could be possibilities for Jack. The Sixers need a veteran point guard and he has ties to the Atlanta area, he went to Georgia Tech, and the Hawks could see him as a cheaper alternative to re-signing Mike Bibby.
Glenn Davis – After a strong showing in the playoffs that saw him average 15.8 points per game Davis is sure to garner some interest from teams needing a big man. However, given the team has no idea how Kevin Garnett is going to bounce back from knee surgery this summer expect the Celtics to match any reasonable offer that comes Davis’ way.
Rashad McCants – Could get some interest from teams looking for a third or fourth scoring option or a 6th man. McCants has shown himself a capable scorer when he is healthy enough to play 25 to 30 minutes a game.
Top Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA)
Ben Gordon – It is believed that Gordon is at the top of the Pistons’ wish lish and they are prepared to make a significant offer for him. It is also thought that Gordon wants to stay in Chicago as long as the money is right. His general unhappiness with the Bulls has always been about the money.
He would be a good building block for the Timberwolves, who have a need for a scorer in the backcourt, if they are willing to spend the money on him.
Shawn Marion – There is not a huge market for a guy like Marion who is starting to show signs of his age and has a reputation of being hard to deal with at times. Unless he is willing to settle for the mid-level exception the Raptors seem the most likely option for him at this time barring a sign-and-trade deal with someone.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza is a guy one always hears a lot about in terms of his ability and how much teams like him around the league but he never seems to put up the kind of numbers to go along with that rep. Statistically he is coming off of his strongest season and after playing a key role in the Lakers’ title run he is sure to garner interest from teams around the league looking for an athletic wing player who can defend. The Lakers have said they intend on keeping him.
Lamar Odom – The Lakers have said they want to re-sign both Ariza and Odom but it remains to be seen if they can afford to keep both. Odom is probably more of a luxury than a necessity at this stage and given that Ariza is much younger, plays better defense, and will likely come at a significantly cheaper price there is a strong chance Odom will be playing elsewhere next season. The Orlando Magic could be a strong possibility for him if Turkoglu jumps ship to another team.
Andre Miller – The Sixers desparately need to re-sign Miller as the cupboard is rather bare at the point guard position for them without Miller. His agent has said he is open to coming back to Philly as long as the money is right and it is said that he wants at least a three year deal which is about how much time they should need to develop Holiday into a full fledged NBA point guard. The Blazers could make a run at him and he could potentially be seen by the Hawks as a cheaper alternative to Bibby.
Jason Kidd – Kidd is supposed to meeting with the Knicks on Wednesday. The Mavericks are expected to make him an offer that is probably better than market value for him and he is likely to stay in Dallas. To be honest one really wonders whether Kidd is that good of a basketball move for the Knicks. Consider that incumbent point guard Chris Duhon put up comparable numbers to Kidd’s and is probably a better on the ball defender and more suited for D’Antoni’s offense than an aging Jason Kidd with sketchy knees is.
Mike Bibby – It seems unlikely that the Hawks are going to make any kind of a significant long term commitment to Bibby given they just drafted Jeff Teague and traded for Jamal Crawford prior to draft day. Does he go to Portland or possibly Memphis?
Rasheed Wallace – Wallace’s fate could very well depend on what he is willing to sign for. The Celtics have been rumored to have an interest in Wallace. He is seen as a potential fall back in the event KG is not up to speed when the season rolls around and he needs more time to rehab his knee. Rasheed loved playing for Larry Brown and the Bobcats could be an option if he is willing to take less money to play there. The Magic or the Cavs could be possibilities as well if those teams lose out on their top options.
Allen Iverson – Like Wallace Iverson’s depends largely on whether he is willing to swallow his pride and accept a significant pay cut to play ball next year. AI is likely going to have to accept somewhere in the neighborhood of a 50 percent paycut if he wants to play next year. Iverson can still play but he is not seen as a franchise type player any more and is at a point in his career where he is really suited to being a complimentary player than a number one guy. It remains to be seen whether his ego is willing to play second fiddle as well as take a significant pay cut. He showed in Denver that he does not have to be the top guy to be productive, but, the way things played out in Detroit did not do him any favors and younger teams are going to be leery of signing him.
Ron Artest – Artest had initially expressed an interest in staying in Houston. With Yao’s future in doubt one wonders if his position changes at all given the team is not going to be in a position to seriously contend for a championship without Yao in the middle.
Charlie Villanueva – It was rumored a few weeks ago that the Cavs were going to make a push to sign Villanueva when he hit the market and it is also being reported that he is at the top of the Pistons wish list as well. It kind of boggles one’s mind that the Bucks opted not give him a qualifying offer and are letting him hit the open market after dealing Richard Jefferson for a bunch of bench players. One just wonders what the Bucks are doing right now.
Channing Frye – Remember when everyone was falling all over themselves trying to get their hands on Frye after his rookie season? It will be interesting to see how much interest he generates seeing as his career seemed to have peak somewhere during his rookie season.
